Smart?? It was only smart short term.
The deal was struck to preserve MJs best chance of winning a criminal as the civil trial would have gone first with the prosecution sitting in an listening to MJs entire defense and then they could have shaped their case around that meaning MJ would have been heavily disadvantaged for the criminal trial.
If you have endless of money, there is no way in hell you would jeopardize MJ going to jail for something he did not do. Its better to be free with clouds hanging around you than in prison for 30-40 years or maybe death. On top of what who knows if MJ would have survived 2-3 years of civil & crminal trials + appeals etc.
What did MJ ask is advisors?
"Can you guarantee me we will in the case?
Advisors: "We cant gurantee you anything"
Even if MJ was innocent as we all believe he could still have been jailed for child molestation if the jury got swayed which would not have been impossible with the media frenzy etc.
Nobody could have predicted the Arvizo scammer family coming into the picture and also even if it did, it did make MJ avoid jail time and he could resume his career & life. Not to mention the income he would have lost on not touring, not making any music, the downfall from 2-3 years litigation and embarrasment.
In worst case we would have no History, Blood on the dance floor, no history tour, no invincible and MJ being jailed or maybe commit suicide.
So the decision to settle the civil case was very smart, gambling with Michaels freedom would have been crazy!