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The Official 'Michael' Bio-Pic Thread

I do feel that some fans have overestimated this film’s potential success at the box office.

I keep seeing comments like easy billion and it will be the highest grossing biopic ever. Michael Jackson is much more famous than Queen etc.

Are people not aware that Bohemian Rhapsody was a phenomenon, a lighting bolt pre-Covid and it was never expected to reach so many people and make as much as it did? Biopics don’t usually do all that great.

Bohemian Rhapsody seems to be the benchmark cause of who produced it and how much it made.

I said it before but this film is not making a billion. It’s not got enough hype I’m afraid outside the fandom and also due to Michael’s controversies.
 
wonderouzmj said:
That's a hell of a dream but we know better than that🫩🫩
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That's absolutely my dream. They did the same with Elvis. First the biopic then Elvis EPic with rarely seen footage. They would be absolutely dumb to not follow that blue print. Victory tour in HD on the big screen would be even more epic than Elvis. ;-)
 
Blues_Away2023 said:
I do feel that some fans have overestimated this film’s potential success at the box office.

I keep seeing comments like easy billion and it will be the highest grossing biopic ever. Michael Jackson is much more famous than Queen etc.

Are people not aware that Bohemian Rhapsody was a phenomenon, a lighting bolt pre-Covid and it was never expected to reach so many people and make as much as it did? Biopics don’t usually do all that great.

Bohemian Rhapsody seems to be the benchmark cause of who produced it and how much it made.

I said it before but this film is not making a billion. It’s not got enough hype I’m afraid outside the fandom and also due to Michael’s controversies.
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Blablabla. The thing is, no one knows. It could go either way.
 
Blues_Away2023 said:
I do feel that some fans have overestimated this film’s potential success at the box office.

I keep seeing comments like easy billion and it will be the highest grossing biopic ever. Michael Jackson is much more famous than Queen etc.

Are people not aware that Bohemian Rhapsody was a phenomenon, a lighting bolt pre-Covid and it was never expected to reach so many people and make as much as it did? Biopics don’t usually do all that great.

Bohemian Rhapsody seems to be the benchmark cause of who produced it and how much it made.

I said it before but this film is not making a billion. It’s not got enough hype I’m afraid outside the fandom and also due to Michael’s controversies.
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At this point it seems like you want it to fail
 
Just want to remind people that inflation is real. 'Michael' would have to sell 85%-90% of tickets that 'Bohemian Rhapsody' did to reach $1 billion today.

That means it could sell 10%-15% less tickets and reach that number. It can sell 75% of Bohemian Rhapsody sales, and Michael will beat it. pun intended..
 
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Blues_Away2023 said:
I do feel that some fans have overestimated this film’s potential success at the box office.

I keep seeing comments like easy billion and it will be the highest grossing biopic ever. Michael Jackson is much more famous than Queen etc.

Are people not aware that Bohemian Rhapsody was a phenomenon, a lighting bolt pre-Covid and it was never expected to reach so many people and make as much as it did? Biopics don’t usually do all that great.

Bohemian Rhapsody seems to be the benchmark cause of who produced it and how much it made.

I said it before but this film is not making a billion. It’s not got enough hype I’m afraid outside the fandom and also due to Michael’s controversies.
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Time and time again people are seeing this attitude as being a "hater" or "wanting it to fail" and its pathetic.

Bohemian Rhapsody was an outlier. Musical biopics are not in demand. This film has to go against all trends and hopefully they pull it off.
 
For what it's worth, here's an article from 27 March

www.worldofreel.com

‘Michael’ Crushes Pre-Sales: Antoine Fuqua’s Biopic Might Break $80M-$90M+ Opening Weekend — World of Reel

Antoine Fuqua’s “Michael” is absolutely killing it in ticket pre-sales. Internal tracking is hinting at an $80M–$90M opening weekend.
www.worldofreel.com www.worldofreel.com

‘Michael’ Crushes Pre-Sales: Antoine Fuqua’s Biopic Might Break $80M-$90M+ Opening Weekend​

March 27, 2026 Jordan Ruimy
Firstly, a note on tracking for Antoine Fuqua’s “Michael,” which is absolutely killing it in ticket pre-sales. Internal tracking is hinting at an $80M–$90M opening weekend. I don’t even think mediocre reviews will matter much when it comes to this movie, and globally? Michael Jackson was a more popular artist internationally, so it’s no surprise its global tally will likely be even greater.

Now, do audiences know that “Michael” is just part one? Last year, we learned that Fuqua reportedly had a “Michael” cut running nearly four hours long, which Lionsgate now plans to split into two parts — “Michael” (part one) is around 120 minutes.

The catch? The sequel only happens if “Michael” becomes a hit with audiences when it opens in April. If it lands big, which looks like it’ll be the case, then Lionsgate will move forward. If not, all that extra footage turns out to be a waste of money, and the Jackson estate, which has been covering the costs, eats the losses.

Something to keep an eye on, and with “Super Mario Galaxy” aiming for a $150M domestic opening next weekend, the box office is looking fairly healthy at the moment. A promising start to 2026.


Now, there’s one new wide release to track this weekend, and that’s Warner Bros’ “They Will Kill You,” which grossed $1M in Thursday previews. The Zazie Beetz-led thriller has a budget of $20M, and is co-financed between New Line and the Skydance-owned Nocturna — it’s expected to earn $9M this weekend.

Reviews are at 51 on Metacritic, and 72% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes, which is a few digits below its toughest genre competition this weekend, “Ready or Not 2”‘s 75%. Not the best scores to lure a wide audience, and I haven’t seen the film just yet, but odds are it won’t make much of a dent commercially.

However, the big news continues to be Amazon/MGM’s “Project Hail Mary,” currently at $110M domestic, and after a $6.1M Thursday, the hope is for a small 40% drop this weekend, which might very well happen — I’m going with a box-office-topping $45M weekend for the film in its second weekend.

Then there’s “Hoppers,” Pixar’s latest film, a decent film — nothing more than that — now entering its third weekend, and earning $1M on Friday. Its domestic cume is now at $248M worldwide. Not a triumph by any means when compared to past Pixar successes; hell, not even close to besting “Elemental,” which had a nearly $500M global tally.
 
dunno.. from what I can see the hype's insane which is good thing... but ...maybe the expectations turn a few notches lower ..if it doesn't...easier to cope
 
Let's wait and see when the movie is released. Do you remember days before Oppenheimer was released in theatres, they predictet that the movie would make 55M on opening weekend but in the end, it made 83M at the opening box office. It's not an exact science. It's just a projection.
 
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innuendo141 said:
Time and time again people are seeing this attitude as being a "hater" or "wanting it to fail" and its pathetic.

Bohemian Rhapsody was an outlier. Musical biopics are not in demand. This film has to go against all trends and hopefully they pull it off.
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I know, it’s pretty frustrating to be honest.

I am praying 🙏 that this film will be a massive success and some of the initial projections about making 100 million on opening weekend are amazing.

As someone who has followed this movie from when it was first announced to now, it’s disappointing to see another projecting that this will only do 40 million domestically. That would be horrible.

I’m speaking out in fear , its nothing to do with hate and wanting this film to fail.
 
Blues_Away2023 said:
I know, it’s pretty frustrating to be honest.

I am praying 🙏 that this film will be a massive success and some of the initial projections about making 100 million on opening weekend are amazing.

As someone who has followed this movie from when it was first announced to now, it’s disappointing to see another projecting that this will only do 40 million domestically. That would be horrible.

I’m speaking out in fear , its nothing to do with hate and wanting this film to fail.
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Same, it's also a fear based in reality though. Automatically assuming that this film would smash 1 billion was unrealistic given the current climate (and the fact that a substantial number of people believe he is an abuser).

That said, I just saw cinema tickets are now on-sale in Ireland so I'm now in for 22nd!
 
Blues_Away2023 said:
I know, it’s pretty frustrating to be honest.

I am praying 🙏 that this film will be a massive success and some of the initial projections about making 100 million on opening weekend are amazing.

As someone who has followed this movie from when it was first announced to now, it’s disappointing to see another projecting that this will only do 40 million domestically. That would be horrible.

I’m speaking out in fear , its nothing to do with hate and wanting this film to fail.
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On the other hand... would this really be such a catastrophe if it smashed internationally?
 
Blues_Away2023 said:
Je sais, c'est assez frustrant, pour être honnête.

Je prie 🙏 pour que ce film soit un immense succès, et certaines des premières estimations, qui annoncent 100 millions de dollars de recettes pour le week-end de sortie, sont tout simplement incroyables.

Ayant suivi ce film depuis son annonce, je suis déçu de voir une nouvelle prévision qui table sur seulement 40 millions de dollars de recettes aux États-Unis. Ce serait catastrophique.

Je m'exprime par peur, cela n'a rien à voir avec la haine ou le désir que ce film soit un échec.
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ridiculous
 
t1mber said:
The second week is more important for total box office. If it drops significantly than there'll be no chance for 1B. If it drops less than 35% than there's a huge possibility to reach the target.
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Michael it's global ( international)!!
15-20% us and 80-85% International !!
us first weekend for me more than 100M.
 
beltrano said:
Michael it's global ( international)!!
15-20% us and 80-85% International !!
us first weekend for me more than 100M.
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But the point is what good is $100 million in week 1 if in the second week it makes $49? (this is an exaggeration, btw. Some of you are very sensitive).

A good opening weekend is important, but the second that weekend is out of the way all eyes are on what it will actually make, and the week 2 drop-off % is more important. We aren't being negative, that's how it is.

Batman v Superman is the example I keep coming back to, even if it's not the worst dropoff.
 
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innuendo141 said:
But the point is what good is $100 million in week 1 if in the second week it makes $49? (this is an exaggeration, btw. Some of you are very sensitive).

A good opening weekend is important, but the second that weekend is out of the way all eyes are on what it will actually make, and the week 2 drop-off % is more important. We aren't being negative, that's how it is.

Batman v Superman is the example I keep coming back to, even if it's not the worst dropoff.
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our ordeal will soon be over
 
beltrano said:
our ordeal will soon be over
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There's no ordeal, :ROFLMAO: we are just discussing what happens when a film is released. I'll be disappointed if it doesn't do well (for MJ), but I certainly won't lose sleep for a film that I don't expect to be blown away by.
 
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